The High Order Bit

A few weeks ago, I received an invite to Google Wave, but didn’t get a chance to really think much about it until now.

Though it’s been said that Wave is email’s Segway, Google has a pattern of seeming to bite off more than they can chew – only to succeed in the end. Gmail was, at the time of release, yet another web mail client with seemingly too much hype. But only a few years on, Gmail’s killer feature of unlimited size of your inbox has not only transformed their users’ behavior but now unlimited storage is ubiquitous among web mail providers. Wave is in fact a protocol, not just a Google hosted service and Google is planning on releasing the source code for their implementation, hoping that there will be as many Wave servers running as there are email servers today. With the vision clearly set on completely transforming online conversations, I’m not underestimating their prowess in revolutionizing a seemingly ingrained technology.

However, Wave is pushing boundaries and making bets users will change several engrained behaviors. While developers have been using versioning systems for years, Mom & Dad (unless software engineers) will grope to understand the power of tracking file versions (‘playback’ in wave). Also, users need to switch from thinking linearly about online conversations (email, chat, forums, even twitter) to an asynchronous model – which again is a basic human behavior that will have significant barriers to change.

Unlike Search, Gmail, Google Voice, Calendar, and Docs, in order for Wave to be useful, let alone truly powerful, everyone in your conversation will need a Wave account – either on Google’s servers or elsewhere. Here, Google is counting on two curves of adoption – first in Google Wave, then in the ubiquity of everyone having a Wave account somewhere in the federation of Wave servers. The first will likely have to be a success before the second curve starts its uptrend. At this point with a limited user base and a slow invite process, it’ll be some time until Google Wave hits it’s inflection point.

If you want a Google Wave invite comment & I’ll put your email into the queue.